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Can Pujols Live Up To Deal?

December 14, 2011 By: Katchop Category: MLB

Albert Pujols of the California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels will have to be pretty good to justify his big contract.

It's going to take a lot of hits for Albert Pujols to give the Los Angeles Angels their money's worth.

It's going to take a lot of hits for Albert Pujols to give the Angels their money's worth.

From The Wall Street Journal

As The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond pointed out, teams that sign players to 10-year deals don’t always regret them. But a team signing a first baseman who will be 32 when he starts serving the contract has less chance of getting its money’s worth. That’s because most of a first baseman’s value derives from his bat — even for a good fielder like Pujols. He’ll have to continue to justify his worth with his offense, which is likely to decline.

Pjuols will have to deliver about 40 wins above replacement for the duration of the contract to justify its value, based on how teams value wins today and taking into account that a dollar he earns later in the deal is worth less than a dollar in 2012. But none of Pujols’s peers have been able to do that. I looked at the other 84 men to earn at least 15 wins above replacement by their age-31 season while playing at least three-quarters of their games at first base or designated hitter. None managed more than Lou Gehrig‘s 31.5 wins above replacement for the rest of his career, and that’s even with Gehrig’s career cut short by his eponymous disease. Only 10 players reached 20 WAR, and two out of three didn’t even provide 10 more wins above replacement.

Original Photo bleacherreport

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